Chief Executive of Transporting New Zealand, Dom Kalasih says many trucking operators will be relieved to see the end of a challenging 2025, but there are emerging signs that conditions are beginning to improve as the industry looks ahead to 2026.
Stats NZ reported the economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter of the year, and while the latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term growth outlook, it forecasts annual GDP for the year ending March 2026 to increase by 0.9 percent, before growth picks up to 2.8 percent in the following year.
Kalasih says that, as well as the traditional holiday freight-rush, the Transporting New Zealand team has noticed a general sense of optimism and uptick in freight demand.
“Last year we were regularly hearing from members that business was the worst it had ever been, and many firms were really struggling. Now we’re hearing anecdotal reports from our membership team that demand and business confidence is up, and that’s supported by the latest economic data.”
“It’s still tough out there for many road freight operators, and margins remain tight. However, it’s good to see things improving heading into 2026. The stress and strain operators are under in tough times is huge and these positive signs will be a massive relief for business owners and their staff.”
The December ANZ Truckometer showed that heavy vehicle traffic (that closely correlates with real-time GDP) was up .9% on the previous year.
Stats NZ’s data showed GDP in the transport, postal and warehousing sector increased .6% in the September quarter, recovering somewhat what a -1.9% dip in the June quarter. Annual average growth in the sector to September 2025 was a modest 0.3%.
“Stats NZ noted that one of the upward drivers of GDP was increased capital investment, up 3.2% in the September quarter, driven by transport equipment. This is good news for productivity and safety across the transport network.” says Kalasih.
“The Government’s Investment Boost policy will be playing a key role in supporting this capital investment.”
Kalasih is optimistic that the Government’s ambitious programme of infrastructure investment, road revenue reform and productivity focused regulatory-reforms will support economic growth in 2026.
“The Government needs to keep pushing its growth-orientated agenda next year, including making ambitious land transport rule reforms to lift freight productivity.”
For more information please contact:
Dom Kalasih, Chief Executive Officer at Ia Ara Aotearoa Transporting New Zealand, 027 441 4309 or email dom@transporting.nz
