I’m mindful our industry never closes down. Without trucking, people wouldn’t be getting their food, drink and Christmas pressies, so a massive shoutout to those that will be working while many others take a break.
I’m one of the lucky ones that gets a break and, for me it’s the best time of the year. I use the time to relax, spend time with family and friends, wash the house and hopefully get out on the water for a sail or work on the boat. I also like to reflect on the year that’s been and think about the year ahead.
The catch-cry advice of “Survive through 25” demonstrates how tough it’s been for our industry, and to a large extent, that’s been an environment influenced by externalities. Given that context, if you’re reading this then I presume you have survived the year – so well done!
Our industry is full of incredibly hard-working, resourceful, responsive and resilient people and it worries me they don’t get all the credit they deserve. So, I suggest (if you haven’t already) then take some time to celebrate the success of surviving through 2025, because that’s been no mean feat!
Recent advocacy wins to round out the year
Over the last couple of weeks we’ve had some good news in the infrastructure area. NZTA has committed to replacing and upgrading the Pekatahi and Fernhill (Ngaruroro River) bridges. These bridges have been two specific focal points of our advocacy. While there’s no doubt the work of many others, particularly local MPs, mayors and their communities were key in getting NZTA onboard, it’s been good to play a part in those wins. On roading closer to home, we met with NZTA about the SH1 Wellington improvements, and this drone flyover shows the progress on the Ōtaki to north of Levin (Ō2NL) project.
In the productivity space, we’ve led and coordinated the drafting of a submission on NZTA’s proposed changes to the Vehicle Dimension and Mass Rule. The submission is made on behalf of a coalition of seven automotive and freight associations. Hopefully NZTA will appreciate this unified voice across the sector and take heed of our recommendations. In short, we want much more to be done to unlock productivity gains and to remove barriers that stifle innovation.
We wrote to Immigration Minister Erica Stanford, supporting the Bus and Coach Association’s request that a change be made to the IELTS English language test pass level required under the Transport Sector Agreement.
We didn’t do this lightly. Four of our team undertook equivalent tests, and from what we’ve seen we do not believe the test is an accurate predictor of how well a person can safely operate a commercial vehicle or integrate into New Zealand. We have also recommended, if needed, for the same to be applied for truck drivers.
The new Ministry
Ministers Bishop, Collins, Simmonds and Watts announced the creation of a new entity that brings the Ministry for the Environment, Ministry of Housing and Urban Development, Ministry of Transport, and local government functions of the Department of Internal Affairs under one umbrella. This new Ministry of Cities, Environment, Regions and Transport (MCERT) will be in place by 1 July 2026.
We’re cautiously optimistic about this change, because taking a more unified approach makes sense. However, we’re also mindful of the risk that we lose momentum with the changes that are just starting to make substantive progress. In particular, changes regarding road revenue, TSLs, driver licensing and the improvement of freight productivity. Therefore, we’ll be offering whatever assistance we can to manage these risks while the organisational changes are worked through.
2026
Looking ahead to next year, the new catch-cry of “Stay in the mix through 26” seems to still be on the money. The latest NZIER Consensus Forecasts show a downward revision to the near-term growth outlook, but annual GDP for the year ending March 2026 is forecast to increase by 0.9% and then up to 2.8% in the following year. The downward revision in the near-term growth outlook reflects the lower starting point of a 0.9% contraction in activity in the June quarter.
We anticipate a very busy year ahead. As well as the three land transport rules currently being consulted on, we will see further policy work and advocacy on VDAM (Phase 2), driver licensing, transport service licensing and worktime rules. Presuming the planned shift to universal RUC at the end of 2027 remains on track, we also anticipate much more detailed discussion and progress on that. And of course, we anticipate further progress with congestion charging and tolling.
Cautionary tales from abroad
It will be interesting to see how other global challenges like decarbonisation and workforce shortages play out. The news this week that the EU is retreating from its target of banning new vehicle emissions in 2035 shows just how difficult decarbonisation is.
As much as possible, our advocacy and policy development will continue to be evidence-based and use learnings from good overseas practice. We need to manage the increasing risk that government officials and our regulators become distracted demands that are nothing more than emotive knee-jerk reactions. This was recently demonstrated in the US where a few states elected to cancel non-domiciled commercial driver licences (CDL) based on some of those drivers being involved in crashes which sadly had tragic outcomes. The Supreme Court has stepped in to stop this. In the court order it was pointed out that non-domiciled CDL holders represent about 5% of all CDL drivers but account for approximately 0.2% of fatal crashes.
Happy New Year
To our members and partners, and to all your workers, families and friends, thank you for your support this year. I really appreciate how much you have invested in this industry. The passion and commitment we see every day is inspiring. I am extremely grateful for that.
Have a great break and I look forward to seeing you next year.
